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基于我国由计划经济向市场经济转型的实际,本文将我国的经济周期以产业为依据理解为体制性波动和市场性波动的综合效应。根据改进的KorenandTenreyro(2007)分解方法将我国的地区经济周期从体制性波动、市场性波动和其他波动三个方面进行分解。分解结果表明:地区经济周期呈现出市场性波动不断增强和体制性波动不断减弱的长期趋势;东部地区的市场性波动要显著大于中西部地区的市场性波动,中西部地区的体制性波动要显著大于东部地区的体制性波动。结果表明市场化程度本身是我国地区经济周期差异化的重要原因,稳步推进区域市场化,培育完善、健全的全国性统一市场机制是实现我国经济周期“高位收敛”的必由之路。
Based on the actual situation of China’s transition from a planned economy to a market economy, this article interprets China’s economic cycle as a comprehensive industry-based economy with a combination of systemic and market volatility. According to the improved Koren andTenreyro (2007) decomposition method, the regional economic cycle of our country is decomposed from three aspects: institutional fluctuation, market fluctuation and other fluctuations. The decomposition results show that: the regional economic cycle shows a long-term trend of increasing market volatility and institutional weakening; the market volatility in the eastern region is significantly greater than the market volatility in the central and western regions, and the systemic fluctuation in the central and western regions is significant Greater than the systemic fluctuations in the eastern region. The results show that the degree of marketization is an important reason for the differentiation of regional economic cycles in our country. It is necessary to steadily promote regional marketization and foster a sound and sound nationwide unified market mechanism to achieve “high convergence” in China’s economic cycle.