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目的分析青岛市脑梗死(CI)发病的时间变化规律,探讨青岛市气象因素对脑梗死CI发病的影响及其预测。方法收集青岛市1998年~2002年5年间4821例CI患者的发病时间及同期的气温、气压、相对湿度、风速等气象资料;圆分布分析探讨CI发病的时间规律,直线相关、多元逐步回归研究CI发病与气象因素之间的关系。结果(1)4821例CI患者中男性比例(55%)高于女性(45%)(χ2=52.06,P<0.01),男性发病年龄低于女性(男性67.7(10.8)岁,女性69.1(9.3岁),u=4.97,P<0.01);(2)男、女性CI都在秋季高发,平均角所对应日期在10月(P<0.05);(3)CI发病多见于高温、高气压、低湿度的气象条件(r=0.308,0.264,-0.370,P<0.05),多元逐步回归筛选出来影响CI月发病人数的气象因素依次是月平均气压和月平均气温。结论气象因素是CI发病的影响因素,但由于较低的校正R2,故以气象因素为自变量的多元逐步回归方程不宜用来预测CI发病人数。
Objective To analyze the time variation of cerebral infarction (CI) in Qingdao and explore the influence of the meteorological factors of Qingdao on the CI of cerebral infarction and its prediction. Methods The onset time of 4821 CI patients and the meteorological data such as temperature, barometric pressure, relative humidity and wind speed of 4821 CI patients in Qingdao during 5 years from 1998 to 2002 were collected. The circular distribution analysis was used to investigate the time course of CI, linear correlation and multiple stepwise regression The relationship between CI and meteorological factors. Results (1) In 4821 CI patients, the male ratio (55%) was higher than that of female (45%) (χ2 = 52.06, P0.01) .The incidence of male was lower than that of female Year old, u = 4.97, P <0.01); (2) Both male and female CIs were in high incidence in autumn, the average angle corresponding to the date in October (P <0.05); (3) CI incidence more common in high temperature and high pressure, Low temperature meteorological conditions (r = 0.308, 0.264, -0.370, P <0.05). The meteorological factors influencing the number of monthly incidence of CI were multivariate stepwise regression followed by monthly mean air pressure and monthly mean air temperature. Conclusions The meteorological factors are the influencing factors of CI. However, the multivariate stepwise regression equations with meteorological factors as independent variables should not be used to predict the number of CI patients due to the lower correction R2.