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采用逐步回归法、列联表分析法对新乡县１９８３～１９９４年二代棉铃虫发生量和１９８１～１９９４年二代棉铃虫发生期的系统资料进行统计分析，建立了二代棉铃虫发生量与发生期的预测模型。结果表明：二代棉铃虫发生量及二代棉铃虫卵始见日与当年５月下旬降水量呈极显著相关。经模型回测，实际值与预测值符合率达９１．７％；二代棉铃虫卵发生始盛期与当年４月下旬平均温度及当年５月下旬温湿系数关系密切。经回测，历史拟合率达９２．９％。
By using the stepwise regression and contingency table analysis, the systematic data of the second generation of cotton bollworm and the second generation of cotton bollworm from 1981 to 1994 in Xinxiang County were statistically analyzed, and the second generation cotton bollworm incidence and Occurrence of the forecast model. The results showed that the amount of second generation cotton bollworm and the second generation cotton bollworm eggs had a very significant correlation with the precipitation in late May. According to the model test, the coincidence rate between the actual value and the predicted value reached 91.7%. The onset of the second generation cotton bollworm eggs was closely related to the average temperature in late April and the temperature and humidity coefficient in late May of that year. After the backtesting, the historical fitting rate of 92.9%.