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1978年改革开放以来,我国经济走上了快速发展的道路。对城市GDP的预测不管是对城市发展来说还是对政策的制定都有重要意义。本文基于时间序列分析技术,以青岛市为例对其1978-2012年的年度GDP数据进行建模分析,并选择了最佳的ARIMA模型进行预测并对2013-2014年GDP进行了比较,结果表明ARIMA模型是一种精度极高且切实有效的模型,并在此基础上对青岛未来几年GDP进行了预测。
Since the reform and opening up in 1978, our economy has embarked on a path of rapid development. Prediction of urban GDP is of great importance to both urban development and policy making. Based on the time series analysis technology and taking Qingdao City as an example, this paper analyzes the annual GDP data from 1978 to 2012 and chooses the best ARIMA model to forecast and compares the GDP from 2013 to 2014. The results show that ARIMA model is an extremely accurate and effective model, and on this basis, the future of Qingdao in the future GDP forecast.