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我县地处安徽淮北平原中部,一代粘虫是当地小麦主要害虫,被列为本站测报重点,但多年来对其发生量的预报却把握不大。 在1978年底,我们应用数理统计的方法,对卵量、蛾量、雌虫率,雨日和雨量等影响因子进行相关、回归分析后,分别建立了四个预测粘虫发生量的回归方程(包括单,复回归);同时对调查方法也作了相应地改进。近六年来的实践证明,以单回归方程(?)=11.805+0.0862x±3.38(r=0.994,t=18.593,p<0.001)预测最为准确。方程中(?)为三龄盛期一类麦田平均幼虫密度(单
My county is located in central Anhui Huaibei Plain, a generation of armyworms is a major pest of local wheat, was listed as the focus of this site measured, but over the years its occurrence is not sure. At the end of 1978, we applied the method of mathematical statistics to correlate the influencing factors such as egg amount, moth amount, female rate, rain day and rainfall amount. After regression analysis, we established four regression equations for predicting the occurrence of armyworm Including single, complex return); at the same time, the survey method has also been improved accordingly. Nearly six years of practice proved that the single regression equation (?) = 11.805 + 0.0862x 3.38 (r = 0.994, t = 18.593, p <0.001) the most accurate prediction. In the equation, (?) Is the average larval density of a wheat field in the third year of age (single