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基于中国东部地区旱涝分布和东亚夏季海平面气压存在密切关系的基础上,利用1470—2008年中国东部地区旱涝等级资料、1850—2008年东亚夏季海平面气压资料,运用主成分回归的方法重建了1470—2008年的东亚地区夏季海平面气压场,并对重建结果进行了检验,同时对1470—2008年东亚夏季海平面气压重建场和FGOALS_gl数值模式模拟的海平面气压场进行了对比分析。结果表明:①1850—2008年重建的东亚夏季海平面气压场在东亚夏季风关键区(中国内陆地区以及西北太平洋部分地区)重建效果相对于其他地区要好。②1470—2008年重建的东亚夏季海平面气压场主要存在高纬与中纬气压差异、海洋与陆地差异的两种空间分布型;1470—1999年FGOALS_gl数值模拟的东亚夏季海平面气压主要体现了海陆气压差异。③根据重建的东亚夏季海平面气压场定义的1470—2008年东亚夏季风指数的演变具有明显的阶段性,16世纪中期到17世纪初东亚夏季风偏强,17世纪偏弱,18世纪经历了“弱-强-弱-强-弱”的变化,19世纪则是“强-弱-强-弱”的变化,20世纪是明显的“弱-强-弱”变化。而1470—1999年数值模拟的东亚夏季风指数序列与重建序列的主要差异出现在16世纪末和18世纪末,两者的变化趋势相反,其他时段的变化趋势基本一致。
Based on the close relationship between drought and flood distribution in East China and summer sea level pressure in East Asia, the paper uses the data of drought and flood level in East China from 1470 to 2008 and the East Asian summer sea level pressure data from 1850 to 2008, using principal component regression The summer sea level pressure field in East Asia from 1470 to 2008 was reconstructed and the reconstruction results were tested. At the same time, the sea level pressure field simulated by the East Asian summer sea level pressure rebuild field and the FGOALS_gl numerical model from 1470 to 2008 were compared. . The results show that: ① the East Asian summer sea level pressure field reconstructed in 1850-2008 is better than other regions in the reconstruction of the key East Asian monsoon regions (inland areas of China and parts of the Northwest Pacific). ② The East Asian summer sea-level pressure field reconstructed in 1470-2008 mainly existed in the two spatial distributions of atmospheric pressure difference in the high latitudes and the middle latitudes and ocean and in the land. The East Asian summer sea level pressure simulated by FGOALS_gl from 1470 to 1999 mainly reflected the sea- Pressure difference. ③ The evolution of the East Asian Summer Monsoon Index (1470-2008), as defined by the reconstructed summer sea level pressure in East Asia, has obvious phases. From the mid-16th century to the early 17th century, the East Asian summer monsoon became stronger, weakened in the 17th century, and experienced the 18th century In the 19th century, there was a change of “strong-weak-strong-weak ”. In the 20th century, it was obvious “weak-strong-weak” change. However, the major differences between the 1470-1999 numerical simulations of the East Asian summer monsoon index series and the reconstructed sequences appeared at the end of the 16th century and the end of the 18th century. The trend of the two was opposite while that of the other periods was basically the same.