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以紧的财政金融政策,解决宏观经济的过度扩张,抑制通货膨胀加剧,在经济发达国家是作为经验推崇的,在发展中国家也不乏成功的范例。然而,我国在1985—86年间首次明确提出的财政金融“双紧”政策,却由于其它辅助政策不配套没有达到预期的效果,反而引起经济的振荡与衰退。1988年4季度,国家决定再次实施紧缩政策时,又出现了工业生产滑坡、市场销售疲软等比较严重的问题。许多人由此提出质疑:在以“速度——效益”型为特征的我国经济中能否有效的实施紧缩政策?怎样评价此次紧缩后的效果?近期内经济宏观态势将如何发展?就此,谈些粗浅的看法。
With tight fiscal and monetary policies, resolving the over-expansion of the macroeconomy and curbing the increase in inflation have been respected in the economically developed countries as experience and there are also many successful examples in the developing countries. However, the “double-tightening” fiscal policy first proposed by our country in 1985-86 failed to achieve the expected result due to the mismatch in other supporting policies, but instead caused economic oscillations and recessions. In the fourth quarter of 1988, when the country decided to implement the austerity policy again, serious problems such as industrial production decline and weak market sales emerged. Many people question this question: Can China effectively implement the austerity policy in the “speed-benefit” type of economy? How to evaluate the effect after the austerity? How will the macroeconomic situation develop in the near future? In this regard, Talk about the superficial view.