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本文以二元经济等理论为基础,通过对中国30个省份1978~2012年面板数据的回归,以人均实际GDP的对数为被解释变量,城镇化水平作为解释变量,并创新性地加入了固定资产投资占GDP的比重、就业人口、进出口总额占GDP的比重等控制变量,实证分析了我国城镇化与经济增长的关系,二者呈56.76%的正相关。在控制了面板固定效应模型的个体效应后,人均实际GDP对城镇化水平的弹性为0.669%。另外,本文通过非参数检验证明我国东中西部城镇化水平和经济发展差异明显,因此在政策制定上不应“一刀切”。
Based on the theory of dual economy and so on, through the regression of panel data from 1978 to 2012 in 30 provinces in China, taking the logarithm of real GDP per capita as explanatory variable and the level of urbanization as explanatory variables, The investment in fixed assets as a share of GDP, the employed population, the share of total imports and exports in GDP and other control variables, the empirical analysis of the relationship between urbanization and economic growth in China, the two showed a positive correlation of 56.76%. After controlling the individual effect of panel fixed effect model, the elasticity of per capita real GDP to urbanization is 0.669%. In addition, this paper proves that the level of urbanization and economic development in the eastern, central and western parts of China are obviously different through nonparametric tests. Therefore, we should not make a “one size fits all” policy making.