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近年来,美联储加息似乎成了新兴市场的达摩克利斯之剑。这是因为,从历史经验看,美联储启动加息进程后新兴市场容易出现经济波动甚至金融危机,投资者担心历史会重演。理论上讲,美联储加息将提高资金成本,使资本有回流美国的动力。但资本流动更多取决于各国实体经济吸引力、资产回报率以及经济风险的对比,美国政策利率只是影响资本流动的诸多因素之一。而且,资本流动是否触发金融危机还取决于更多内因和外因,不宜盲目断言美联储加
In recent years, the Fed’s rate hike seems to be the sword of Damocles in emerging markets. This is because, from historical experience, emerging markets are prone to economic volatility and even financial crisis after the Federal Reserve started the rate hike process, and investors are worried that history will repeat itself. In theory, a rate hike by the Federal Reserve will raise the cost of capital and allow capital to move back the United States. However, capital flows depend more on the economic attractiveness of entities, the return on assets, and economic risks in each country. The US policy interest rate is only one of many factors that affect the flow of capital. Moreover, whether capital flows trigger the financial crisis also depends on more internal and external factors, it should not blindly assert that the Federal Reserve