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城市轨道交通建设中涉及第三者财产损失的事故占有相当比例。近年来,已有较多的工程风险基本理论及风险管理方面的研究成果,然而针对隧道的风险管理却应用较少,特别是基于量化方法的风险分析研究比较缺乏,这导致了工程风险分析和工程保险工作一直缺乏数理分析依据。文章在盾构隧道施工的环境风险分析与工程保险的承保条件评价中使用了量化的方法。利用Peck公式这一种简化的并能适应实际施工条件的沉降计算公式进行沉降分析,与实际监测数据相比,具有较好的吻合度。基于Peck公式和结构物破坏隶属度函数理论基础的计算能够比较合理地解决盾构隧道下穿结构物可能造成上部结构物直接财产损失的估算问题,计算结果能够反映出实际损失趋势和大致的范围,为量化研究下穿结构物的盾构隧道在施工过程中可能造成的上部结构物沉降损失提供了一条比较简单实用的方法。在此基础上,也可以为保险公司承保相应保险时提供计算依据。
Accidents involving the loss of property of third parties occupy a considerable proportion in the construction of urban rail transit. In recent years, there have been more basic theories of engineering risk and risk management. However, there are few applications of risk management for tunnels, especially the lack of risk analysis based on quantitative methods. This leads to the analysis of project risk and Engineering insurance has been the lack of mathematical analysis. The article uses quantitative methods in environmental risk analysis of shield tunnel construction and underwriting conditions of engineering insurance. Using Peck’s formula, a simplified settlement analysis formula that can adapt to the actual construction conditions, has good agreement with the actual monitoring data. The calculation based on the Peck formula and the theoretical basis of structural failure membership function can reasonably solve the problem of estimating the direct property loss of the superstructure due to the penetrating structure of the shield tunnel. The calculation result can reflect the actual loss trend and the approximate range It provides a relatively simple and practical method for quantifying the possible subsidence loss of the superstructure during the construction of the shield tunnel under the structure. On this basis, it can also provide calculation basis for the insurance companies to cover the corresponding insurance.