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利用中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室(LASG)发展的耦合气候系统模式FGOALS_gl,进行了年代际气候回报和预测试验.首先,采用“Incremental Analysis Updates”(IAU)方案同化海洋客观分析资料的三维温度和盐度场,完成对耦合模式海洋分量的初始化.然后,用国际耦合模式比较计划的“20世纪气候模拟试验”20C3M给定的太阳常数、温室气体和硫酸盐气溶胶强迫耦合模式,进行年代际回报试验;在回报试验的基础上,再继续进行对A1B排放情景下的21世纪初20年的预测试验.把回报试验的结果与单纯的20C3M试验的结果进行比较,发现回报试验对热带中东太平洋和中纬度东北太平洋等区域海表面温度(SST)的年代际变率的模拟技巧远高于20C3M试验的结果.这表明,海洋初始化过程能够有效地提高耦合模式对年代际变率较大区域的预测技巧.预测试验表明,目前热带中东太平洋SST已经达到年代际振荡负位相的谷值,之后10～15年将逐渐增暖.同时,预测试验预测的2000～2010年全球平均表面温度的增暖速度显著落后于A1B情景试验的结果,之后则超过A1B试验.
Interdecadal climatic return and prediction experiments are conducted using the coupled climate system model FGOALS_gl developed by the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling of Atmospheric Sciences and Geomechanics of Atmospheric Physics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences.Firstly, using “Incremental Analysis Updates” (IAU) program to assimilate the three-dimensional temperature and salinity fields of the objective data from the ocean to complete the initialization of the ocean component of the coupling model.And then, using the international coupling model, the solar constant given by the planned “20th century climate simulation” 20C3M , Greenhouse gas and sulfate aerosol forcibly coupled model for interdecadal return test; based on the return test, continue the forecast test for the first 20 years of the 21st century under the A1B emission scenario. 20C3M test, we found that the simulation technique for the interdecadal variability of the sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical central and eastern Pacific and mid-latitude northeastern Pacific is far higher than the result of the 20C3M test, which indicates that the ocean initialisation process Which can effectively improve the prediction model of the coupled decay region with large interdecadal variability.Prediction Test Table At present, the tropical central-eastern Pacific SST has reached the valley of the negative phase of decadal oscillation and will gradually warm up from 10 to 15 years.At the same time, the predicted warming rate of the global average surface temperature from 2000 to 2010 lags behind that of A1B The result of the test then exceeded the A1B test.