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本文认为,中美经贸关系是中国进出口贸易的集中写照。起始于1994年的中国出口导向政策,最直接的结果是中国外汇储备近2万亿美元,这种“高能货币”基于乘数效应在国内市场上形成至少60万亿人民币的购买力,这是形成流动性泛滥的真正原因。经过金融危机冲击的中美贸易,预计仍然将呈现增长的趋势,中美贸易顺差大一点好还是小一点好,取决了市场结构性变化。本文指出,通过对以往中美贸易结构的梳理,对应对这次金融危机以及进一步发展中国的进出口贸易都是十分必要的。
This article argues that Sino-U.S. Economic and trade relations are a concentrated portrait of China’s import and export trade. The most direct result of China’s export-oriented policy started in 1994 was China’s foreign exchange reserves of nearly 2 trillion U.S. dollars. Based on the multiplier effect, this “high-energy currency” has a purchasing power of at least 60 trillion yuan in the domestic market, This is the real reason for the proliferation of liquidity. The Sino-U.S. Trade hit by the financial crisis is still expected to show a growth trend. Greater and lesser trade surplus between China and the United States will depend on structural changes in the market. This article points out that through the combing of the Sino-U.S. Trade structure in the past, it is necessary to cope with the financial crisis and further develop China’s import and export trade.