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在刚刚过去的一年,国际形势有一个突出特点:动荡加剧、乱象纷呈。这是大家的共识。但这个“乱”是局部的、短时期的或是震荡程度有限的乱,还是全局性、长时段的和剧烈震荡的乱呢?我的看法是后者。也就是说,世界的大变局将要经历一场大动乱。这个判断直接关系到我们对国际形势总体趋势的把握,关系到我们根本性的战略应对。
In the past year alone, the international situation has a salient feature: intensified turmoil and chaos. This is everyone’s consensus. But is this “chaos” a partial, short-term or limited turmoil chaos, or a global, prolonged and violent turmoil? My opinion is the latter. In other words, the world’s major changes will be going through a big turmoil. This judgment is directly related to our grasp of the general trend of the international situation and our fundamental strategic response.