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本文根据中国287个地级及以上城市的数据,运用MIMIC模型(多指标多原因模型)构建了集聚综合指数,并用广义倾向评分法(GPS)实证分析了不同集聚水平对三种污染物的影响。研究发现集聚对三种污染物的影响存在差异且存在临界点:集聚对二氧化硫的影响作用呈倒“U”型,集聚对工业废水、工业粉尘的作用呈现“S”型。集聚水平小于0.2时,集聚促进了二氧化硫的排放;集聚水平超过0.34后,集聚对二氧化硫的排放产生抑制作用。集聚水平小于0.18时,集聚抑制了工业废水和工业粉尘的排放;集聚水平超过0.18后,集聚明显促进了工业废水和工业粉尘的排放。
Based on the data of 287 prefecture-level cities and above in China, this paper constructs a composite index based on the MIMIC model (multi-indicator and multi-factor model), and uses the generalized tendency evaluation method (GPS) to analyze the impact of different agglomeration levels on the three pollutants . The study found that the effect of agglomeration on the three pollutants is different and there is a critical point. The effect of agglomeration on sulfur dioxide is “U” type, and the effect of agglomeration on industrial wastewater and industrial dust presents “S” type. When the agglomeration level is less than 0.2, the agglomeration promotes the emission of sulfur dioxide; when the agglomeration level exceeds 0.34, the agglomeration will have an inhibitory effect on the emission of sulfur dioxide. When the agglomeration level is less than 0.18, agglomeration inhibits the discharge of industrial wastewater and industrial dust. After the agglomeration level exceeds 0.18, the agglomeration obviously promotes the discharge of industrial wastewater and industrial dust.