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目的对鄱阳湖生态经济区血吸虫病的疫情进行预测,为建立血吸虫病疫情预警体系和防控机制提供科学依据。方法收集2003-2012年鄱阳湖生态经济区血吸虫病疫情资料,运用灰色系统GM(1,1)模型预测血吸虫病2013-2020年钉螺面积、慢性血吸虫病患病率、耕牛感染率等,并引进环境干涉因子修正预测结果。结果对血吸虫病各项指标建立了预测模型并进行了中长期预测,疫情指标中除了人群患病率有增高趋势外,其他指标均有不同程度的降低。连续三年钉螺面积预测值分别为23 950.9855 hm2,23 175.8481 hm2,22 737.8290 hm2。人群患病率预测值分别为1.6107%,1.9828%,2.3872%。慢性病患病率预测值分别为0.0240%,0.0547%,0.0442%。晚期病人数预测值分别为473,462,457。急性感染者数预测值分别为18,9,6。新感染者数预测值分别为597,509,409。病牛数预测值分别为803,766,716。耕牛感染率预测值分别为23.5376%,19.3206%,17.0951%。结论血吸虫病疫情得到明显控制,未来疫情整体呈下降趋势,但人群患病率有回升可能,预测结果还需进一步验证。
Objective To predict the epidemic situation of schistosomiasis in the Poyang Lake Ecological Economic Zone and provide a scientific basis for establishing the early warning system and prevention and control mechanism of the epidemic situation of schistosomiasis. Methods The data of schistosomiasis in Poyang Lake Ecological Economic Zone from 2003 to 2012 were collected. The gray system GM (1,1) model was used to predict the area of snail schistosomiasis in 2013-2020, the prevalence of chronic schistosomiasis and the rate of cattle invaders. Introducing environmental interference factor to amend forecast result. Results The prediction model of schistosomiasis was established and the long-term prediction was made. In addition to the increasing prevalence rate of the population in the epidemic index, the other indicators were reduced to varying degrees. The predicted values of snails area for three consecutive years were 23 950.9855 hm2, 23 175.8481 hm2 and 22 737.8290 hm2, respectively. The prevalence of the population predicted values were 1.6107%, 1.9828%, 2.3872%. The predicted prevalence of chronic diseases were 0.0240%, 0.0547% and 0.0442% respectively. The predicted number of patients with advanced disease were 473,462,457. The predicted number of acute infections were 18, 9, and 6, respectively. The estimated number of new infections were 597,509,409. The predicted number of cattle was 803,766,716. The forecast rates of cattle infection were 23.5376%, 19.3206% and 17.0951% respectively. Conclusion The epidemic situation of schistosomiasis has been obviously controlled. The overall epidemic situation will decline in the future, but the prevalence of the disease may rebound. The prediction result needs further verification.