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以安全、潜力和期望(security,potential and aspiration,SP/A)风险决策理论为基础,该文对发电公司面对风险决策时应该考虑的因素进行了分析和数学描述,其中在报价方案潜力性的分析上有效地结合了经济学中机会成本理论。在此基础上,考虑发电公司自身发电计划约束,建立起一种发电公司计及风险因素的竞价决策模型,并结合矩阵实数编码遗传算法(matrix real-coded genetic algorithm,MRCGA)对该模型的优化求解进行了探讨。该文所建的竞价决策模型既考虑了自身发电计划安排,又顾及了在面对风险发电公司竞价决策时应该考虑的一些因素,因此模型比较贴近于实际的发电竞价情况。通过算例的模拟分析表明,文中所提出的基于SP/A的发电公司竞价决策模型是合理的,其求解方法也是切实可行的。
Based on the security, potential and aspiration (SP / A) risk decision theory, this paper analyzes and mathematically describes the factors that power generation companies should consider in the face of risk decision-making, The analysis effectively combines the economics of opportunity cost theory. On this basis, considering the constraint of power generation company’s own power generation plan, this paper establishes a bidding decision model considering generation risk factors by power generation companies, and combines the matrix real-coded genetic algorithm (MRCGA) Solving is discussed. The bidding decision-making model built in this paper not only considers its own power generation planning, but also takes into account some factors that should be considered in the bidding decisions of venture-backed power generation companies. Therefore, the model is relatively close to the actual bidding of power generation. The simulation analysis of the example shows that the bidding decision model of generation company based on SP / A proposed in this paper is reasonable and its solution method is feasible.