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东辽县拥有落叶松人工林面积达70万亩,由于大面积人工纯林客观上为落叶松毛虫提供了充足的食物和发生繁衔的生活条件,所以,几乎每隔几年松毛虫便大量发生和为害一回。近几年由于综合防治技术的发展及预报工作的改善,人们在控制松毛虫的发生和发展上比较主动。因此,出现近十年没出现松毛虫成灾的局面。但是,根据“马尔可夫链”测预法的基本原理对本县林中松毛虫未来发生情况进行预测,我们看到近1—2年将大量发生落叶松毛虫的可能性很大。为采取主动的防预措施,现将预测情况整理如下。
Dongliao County has a larch plantation area of 700000 acres, due to a large area of artificial pure forest objectively provide adequate food for the larch caterpillars and the occurrence of numerous living conditions, so, in almost every few years will be a large number of pine caterpillars Occurrence and damage for a while. In recent years due to the development of integrated control technology and the improvement of forecasting work, people are more active in controlling the occurrence and development of pine caterpillars. Therefore, the occurrence of the past decade did not appear the disaster of pine caterpillars. However, according to the basic principle of the “Markov chain” method, we predict the future occurrence of pine caterpillars in the forest in this county and we see that there is a great possibility that the pine caterpillar will be massively occurred in the past 1-2 years. To take proactive preventive measures, the forecast is now organized as follows.