论文部分内容阅读
目的通过分析银川市风疹发病的季节性特征,为制定更完善的风疹防控策略及措施提供科学依据。方法应用集中度法和圆形分布法探究银川市风疹发病的季节性规律,并比较风疹疫苗普种前后风疹发病季节性变化的趋势。结果2005-2016年银川市风疹的集中度为总M=0.682,疫苗普种前后M值依次为0.679、0.685。圆形分布集中趋势r值为总r=0.681,发病高峰日为5月19日,发病高峰期为3月29日-7月8日,高峰期长达101 d;疫苗普种前,r=0.678,发病高峰日及高峰期依次为5月17日,3月26日-7月7日,高峰期跨度为103 d;疫苗普种后,r=0.685,发病高峰日及高峰期依次为5月20日,3月31日-7月10日,高峰期跨度为101 d。分别对疫苗普种前后的M值、平均角α和高峰期跨度进行假设检验,得到检验值t和概率值P依次为:-0.753/0.446、2.966/<0.05和0.789/0.446。结论风疹的发病具有明显的季节性,发病高峰在3月下旬-7月上旬。疫苗的普遍接种在一定程度上改变了风疹的季节性特征,应根据风疹的流行特点及其变化趋势及时调整防控措施。
Objective To analyze the seasonal characteristics of the occurrence of rubella in Yinchuan and provide a scientific basis for making a better prevention and control strategy of rubella. Methods Concentration and circular distribution were used to explore the seasonal patterns of rubella in Yinchuan and the seasonal changes of rubella were compared before and after the universal rubella vaccine. Results The concentration of rubella in Yinchuan from 2005 to 2016 was M = 0.682. The M values before and after the vaccine were 0.679,0.685. The r value of the circular distribution was r = 0.681, the peak incidence was May 19, the peak incidence was March 29-July 8, and the peak was 101 days. Before vaccination, r = 0.678. The peak and peak incidence were May 17, March 26-July 7, the peak period was 103 days. After the vaccination, r = 0.685, the incidence peak and peak were 5 Month 20, March 31-July 10, the peak period of 101 d. The hypothesis testing of M value, average angle α and peak time span before and after vaccine administration were carried out. The test value t and the probability value P were -0.753 / 0.446, 2.966 / <0.05 and 0.789 / 0.446, respectively. Conclusion The incidence of rubella is obviously seasonal. The onset peak is in late March to early July. The universal vaccination to a certain extent changed the seasonal characteristics of rubella, rubella should be based on the epidemic characteristics and trends in the timely adjustment of prevention and control measures.