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以黄河万家寨水库为例,采用Copula函数构建洪峰和洪量的联合分布模型,随机抽样模拟洪峰和洪量系列并转化为洪水过程线,同时考虑泥沙淤积和泄流能力不确定性影响,在给定汛限水位和调洪规则下调洪演算模拟洪水。结果表明,水文因素的随机性、库容与水位关系的不确定性是万家寨水库防洪风险的主要影响因素,泄流能力不确定性对水库泄洪影响不明显,并获得了各汛限水位方案下水库的防洪风险率,为万家寨水库前汛期汛限水位选择提供了参考依据。
Taking the Wanjiazhai Reservoir in the Yellow River as an example, the Copula function was used to construct a joint distribution model of flood peak and flood volume, which was sampled randomly to simulate flood and flood discharge series and converted into a flood process line. Considering the influence of sedimentation and discharge capacity uncertainty, Given a flood limited water level and flood regulation under flood regulation calculation of flood simulation. The results show that the randomness of the hydrological factors and the uncertainty of the relationship between the reservoir capacity and water level are the main influencing factors of flood risk in Wanjiazhai Reservoir. The uncertainty of discharge capacity has no obvious effect on the flood discharge of the reservoir and the programs of flood control water level The risk rate of flood control in the lower reservoir provides a reference for the selection of the limited flood season flood level before the Wanjiazhai reservoir.