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中国经济增速趋势性下滑迹象已经显现,经济下行压力不断加大。未来中国经济可以保持一个多高的增长水平?本文分为三个部分予以回应:一是从供给侧角度预测中国中长期增长潜力;二是探讨中国要素使用效率变动的源泉,从生产率角度考察2008年以来中国经济减速的成因;三是基于前两部分的发现给出相应的政策建议。本文认为,中国经济增长潜力不断下降将成为未来较长一段时间内的必然趋势。并且,经济刺激计划并未逆转经济增速不断下降的长期趋势,且在刺激计划退出之后“稳增长”效果迅速消失,但对“生产率”的负向影响持续保留。中国经济增速放缓将是较长时间内的必然趋势,同时进一步地改革对防止经济过度降速至关重要。
The signs of a declining trend in China’s economic growth have emerged and the downward pressure on the economy has been steadily increasing. The future of China’s economy can maintain a high level of growth? This paper is divided into three parts to respond: First, from a supply-side perspective forecast China’s long-term growth potential; second is to explore the source of changes in the efficiency of the use of factors in China from a productivity point of view of 2008 China’s economic slowdown in the years since the formation of the third is based on the first two parts of the findings of the corresponding policy recommendations. This paper argues that the continuous decline of China’s economic growth potential will become an inevitable trend for a long period of time in the future. Moreover, the economic stimulus plan did not reverse the long-term trend of declining economic growth, and the effect of “steady growth” rapidly disappeared after the stimulus plan was withdrawn, but the negative impact on the “productivity” persisted. The slowdown of China’s economic growth will be an inevitable trend for a longer period of time. At the same time, further reforms are crucial to preventing excessive economic slowdown.