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近年来,房价过快持续上涨一直是政府与百姓关注的问题,政府也从2005年至今采取了一系列税收手段来调控房价,但结果却不是十分乐观。本文基于VAR模型研究了北京市从2006年1月到2010年1月的税收政策对其新住宅价格、二手房销售价格以及二手房租赁价格的影响。进一步地,采用投资———消费理论并利用倒向随机微分方程(BSDE)的方法讨论了当满足投机者、普通购房者以及政府的期望效用最大时,最佳的二手房转让税税收比例值,并且在文末给出了较为深刻的措施和建议。
In recent years, the rapid rise in house prices has been a concern of the government and people. The government has adopted a series of tax measures since 2005 to control house prices. However, the result is not very optimistic. Based on the VAR model, this paper studies the impact of tax policies in Beijing from January 2006 to January 2010 on the prices of their new residential houses, the sales prices of second-hand houses and the leasing prices of second-hand houses. Furthermore, using the theory of investment-consumption and BSDE (backward-derivative method), we discuss the best second-hand tax rate of transfer tax when meeting the expectant utility of speculators, ordinary homebuyers and the government. , And at the end of the article gives more profound measures and suggestions.