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计算了2001年至2010年北京市的就业弹性系数,并预测了“十二五”期末北京市产业结构升级增加的劳动力规模。结果显示,总就业弹性呈下降趋势,其中第一产业和第二产业释放出大量劳动力,第三产业则吸纳大量劳动人口,极大地带动了北京市人口数量的增加。与就业弹性系数不变的假设情况相比,当以发达国家就业弹性为标杆时,2015年末北京市新增就业人口将少增加100万人。在此基础上,认为北京市人口调控要强化政府的政策导向作用,以产业结构升级为契机,通过优化产业发展布局带动人口结构优化。
Calculated the employment elasticity coefficient of Beijing from 2001 to 2010 and predicted the increase of the labor force scale in Beijing's industrial structure upgrading at the end of the “12th Five-Year Plan” period. The results show that the total employment elasticity shows a downward trend, in which the primary industry and the secondary industry release a large amount of labor force, while the tertiary industry absorbs a large number of working population, greatly boosting the population growth of Beijing. When employment elasticity in developed countries is benchmarked compared to the assumption of constant employment elasticity, the number of new-employed people in Beijing will increase by 1 million less by the end of 2015. On this basis, it is considered that Beijing's population regulation should strengthen the government's policy-oriented role and take the opportunity of upgrading its industrial structure to optimize the population structure through optimizing the industrial development and layout.