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中国水资源定价改革对农业生产有重要影响,而中国农业生产具有很大的节水潜力。本研究将取消灌溉补贴作为模拟背景,将中国水资源平行定价系统和统一定价系统分别引入可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型进行模拟实验及比较评估。结果显示,与平行定价系统相比,统一定价系统将促进农业进口增加,减少农业产出损失,且更有利于促进水资源节约利用,同时城乡居民也可以实现收入增长和食物消费需求增加,而增加的食物消费主要来源于进口。然而,取消灌溉补贴作为一项政策建议需考虑如何降低乃至抵消其对农业产出的负面影响。此外,为进一步改善节水政策实施效果,特别是在统一定价系统下,提高农业劳动力流动性和水资源需求弹性需要得到更多关注。
China’s water pricing reform has an important impact on agricultural production, while China’s agricultural production has great potential for water saving. In this study, the irrigation subsidy was abolished as a simulation background, and the parallel pricing system of water resources in China and the unified pricing system were respectively introduced into the CGE model for simulation experiments and comparative assessments. The results show that, compared with the parallel pricing system, the unified pricing system will promote the increase of agricultural imports, reduce the output loss of agriculture, and more conducive to promoting water conservation and utilization, while urban and rural residents can also achieve income growth and increased demand for food consumption, while The increase in food consumption comes mainly from imports. However, removing irrigation subsidies as a policy recommendation needs to consider how to reduce or even offset its negative impact on agricultural output. In addition, in order to further improve the effect of water saving policies, especially under the unified pricing system, more attention should be paid to improving agricultural labor mobility and water demand elasticity.