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在利用降雨预报实施预蓄预泄调度中，综合分析经济效益及防洪安全的风险性是亟待解决的课题．本文针对小概率暴雨预报资料少、预报误差引起的风险计算困难、决策人的偏好及干预描述、风险率允许值确定困难等问题，建立了水库预蓄效益与风险控制模型．首先给出一种风险率计算方?
In the use of precipitation forecast pre-release pre-release scheduling, a comprehensive analysis of economic benefits and flood risk safety is an urgent issue. In this paper, aiming at the problems of few data of small probability rainstorm forecast, risk calculation caused by forecast error, decision maker’s preference and description of intervention, difficulty of determination of allowable risk rate, the model of reservoir pre-deposit benefit and risk control is established. First, given a risk rate calculation side?