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如果货币政策通过资本渠道传导不畅,现金资产大量滞留在资本市场中,结果在货币扩张/紧缩时,实体部门可能并不能发生相应的资本流入/流出,则货币当局可能产生“上次货币调整的效果不显著”的错觉,促使其发动新一轮更大强度的同向货币政策调整,这将加重国内整体经济和资本市场的动荡。通过对近十余年来货币供给量、资本市场规模和资产价格的实证分析,发现我国资本市场中的政策信息阻塞现象的确会引起货币当局的错觉,进而导致国内经济更加不稳定。
If monetary policy is not well communicated through capital channels, cash assets will largely remain in the capital markets. As a result, the entity may not experience a corresponding inflow / outflow of capital in the event of monetary expansion / contraction, and the monetary authorities may generate “the last currency The effect of adjustment is not significant, ”prompting them to launch a new round of stronger co-ordinated monetary policy adjustments, which will aggravate the turmoil in the domestic economy as a whole and the capital market. Through the empirical analysis of the money supply, capital market scale and asset prices in the past ten years, we find that the blocking of policy information in our country’s capital market can indeed cause the illusion of monetary authorities and lead to a more unstable domestic economy.