论文部分内容阅读
本文对油田地质和开发方面一组重要指标(年注采比、采油速度、采出程度和采油指数)进行分析,分别建立了它们的数学模型,并应用韩志刚在文献[1]中提出的多层递阶预报方法,对它们的交化趋势进行预报。同时我们把此种方法与目前在时间序列分析和预报方面较好的方法(参见文献[2])进行比较,结果表明多层递阶预报方法计算工作量小,使用方便,而且对时变系统具有较好的适应性,预报精度较高。
In this paper, a series of important indexes (annual injection-production ratio, oil recovery rate, production recovery rate and oil recovery index) of oilfield geology and development are analyzed, and their mathematical models are respectively established. The application of Han Zhigang’s Level forecast method, forecast their trend of exchange. At the same time, we compared this method with the current method of time series analysis and forecasting (see [2]). The results show that the multi-level forecasting method has the advantages of low computational load, easy to use, Has good adaptability, high forecast accuracy.