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本文在对反映世界油船市场情况的主要指标及影响因素进行深入分析的基础上,运用最小二乘法建立了世界油船市场的结构方程模型。并运用此模型对2000年以前的世界油船市场的几个主要指标进行了预测。得出了世界造船市场已经复苏,1995年前后将出现新的造船高潮,整个90年代造船市场不会出现严重萧条的局面等结论。以此为依据提出我国应大力发展造船工业。
Based on an in-depth analysis of the main indicators and influential factors that reflect the world oil tanker market, the paper established the structural equation model of world oil tanker market by using the least square method. And use this model to predict several major indicators of the world oil tanker market before the year 2000. It is concluded that the global shipbuilding market has recovered, new shipbuilding upswings will emerge around 1995 and no serious depression will occur in the entire shipbuilding market in the 1990s. On this basis, China should develop the shipbuilding industry vigorously.