【摘 要】
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目的通过对杭州市麻疹的预测,为今后该病的防控提供科学依据。方法利用求和自回归滑动平均模型建模技术对杭州市麻疹监测数据进行2013年发病水平的预测。结果建立了杭州市麻
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目的通过对杭州市麻疹的预测,为今后该病的防控提供科学依据。方法利用求和自回归滑动平均模型建模技术对杭州市麻疹监测数据进行2013年发病水平的预测。结果建立了杭州市麻疹发病率的季节模型ARIMA(2,0,1)×(0,1,1)52,利用该模型预测2013年杭州市麻疹周发病数,平均绝对误差为3.26,年发病数相对误差为7.92%,趋势预测结果吻合。结论 ARIMA模型中的季节模型应用于麻疹的短期预测能够获得较好的预测效果。
Objective To predict the measles in Hangzhou and provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of the disease in the future. Methods The incidence of 2013 level of measles surveillance data in Hangzhou was predicted by using the method of sum-weighted auto-regression moving average model. Results A seasonal model ARIMA (2,0,1) × (0,1,1) 52 of the incidence of measles in Hangzhou was established. By using this model, the incidence of measles in Hangzhou in 2013 was estimated. The average absolute error was 3.26. The annual incidence The relative error of number is 7.92%, and the trend forecast result is consistent. Conclusions The seasonal model in ARIMA model can be used to predict the short-term prognosis of measles.
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