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本文描述了用自动系统编制地震最大震级Mmax预报图的方法。原始资料包括:地震震中图、潜在地震活动的地质地球物理特征图和一些地点(选择点)的Mmax专家评价。用以预报Mmax的地质地球特征函数是通过对选择点上的Mmax专家评价最优逼近得到的。Mmax图的编制需经过若干次迭代。电子计算机用来筛选含有最大信息量的特征,计算预报函数,自动分析评价处理结果并提出便于专业人员利用的图解、表格和地图等形式的结果。专门人员负责控制计算过程,备好原始资料,对结果进行分析和说明,判断是否有必要修正预报图以及将变更部分存入原始资料以期预报图下轮迭代后更趋准确。简略描述了计算程序软件包。列举了克里米亚—高加索—西土库曼地区Mmax预报图的编制实例。
This paper describes a method of compiling a map of maximum earthquake magnitude Mmax using an automated system. The sources include epicenter maps, geophysical profiles of potential seismic activity, and Mmax expert evaluations of some sites (select points). The geo-terrestrial eigenfunctions used to predict Mmax are obtained by optimally approximating Mmax experts at selected points. Mmax diagram of the preparation to go through several iterations. Electronic computers are used to screen features that contain the largest amount of information, calculate forecast functions, automatically analyze evaluation results and present results in the form of diagrams, tables, maps, and more for the benefit of professionals. Specialists are responsible for controlling the calculation process, prepare the original data, analyze and explain the results, and determine whether it is necessary to amend the forecast map and save the changes into the original data so as to be more accurate after the next round of iterations. A brief description of the calculation program package. An example of the preparation of the Mmax forecast for the Crimea-Caucasus-West Turkmenistan region is given.