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利用2001—2012年间的时间序列,通过构建向量误差修正模型,将户籍人口城镇化率与三次产业产值比重等变量一起构建了责港西江经济带城镇化发展的动力机制模型,并以此分析贵港市三次产业对城镇化发展的影响。结果表明:城镇化与第一、第二产业之间存在长期稳定的有利变动关系,与第三产业则存在不利变动关系;第二产业是城镇化发展的主要动力,拉动力长期小于短期,但大于第一产业,同时第一、第三产业的调整在短期内会抑制城镇化水平的提升。建议加速发展第三产业,重点发展现代物流业为主的生产性服务业和旅游业为主的生活性服务业,恢复并增强其对城镇化的正向拉动作用。
Using the time series between 2001 and 2012, this paper builds a vector error correction model to build the dynamic mechanism model of the urbanization of the responsibility zone in Xijiang Economic Belt along with the variables such as the urbanization rate of the household population and the proportion of the tertiary industry output. Based on this, Impact of tertiary industry on urbanization in. The results show that there is a long-term, stable and favorable change relationship between urbanization and primary and secondary industries, and an unfavorable relationship with tertiary industry. The secondary industry is the main driving force for urbanization development, and the driving force is shorter than the short term, Is greater than the primary industry, while the adjustment of the primary and tertiary industries will inhibit the improvement of urbanization in the short term. It is proposed to speed up the development of the tertiary industry, focus on the development of live-based service industries mainly composed of modern service industry and tourism, and restore and enhance its positive role in promoting urbanization.