论文部分内容阅读
本文综合考虑了加工贸易模式下汇率变动对进口中间产品价格和最终产品出口价格的双重影响,并在此基础上对传统的汇率传递模型作了改进,根据改进后的变量关系构建了VAR模型,利用2004年1月至2010年6月的月度数据估计了人民币名义有效汇率对我国商品出口价格指数的传递效应,发现传递程度在短期内比较显著,而在长期内明显减弱。另外还发现,成本变化对出口价格影响较大,需求变化对出口价格影响较小。
This paper synthetically considers the dual influence of the exchange rate fluctuation on the import intermediate product price and the final product export price under the processing trade pattern. On this basis, the traditional exchange rate transfer model is improved. Based on the improved variable relation, a VAR model is constructed, Using the monthly data from January 2004 to June 2010, we estimated the transfer effect of the nominal effective exchange rate of Renminbi on China’s commodity export price index and found that the degree of transmission was significant in the short term and significantly weakened in the long term. In addition, it was found that the changes in costs have a greater impact on export prices and the changes in demand have less impact on export prices.