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随着金秋步伐的临近,北半球的农产品产量进入生长后期,天气也变得十分关键,而产量数字也逐渐趋于定型,下半年的供求情况也逐步明朗。由于国内外宏观经济形势暂时稳定,因此国内秋季的终端旺季特性也在逐渐凸显,生猪价格有所反弹造成国内生猪存栏再度稳中攀升,而饲料原料方面却表现的喜忧掺半。由于杂粕的供给减少价格走高,豆粕的消费量今年增长明显,现货价格居高不下,供给也呈现偏紧的格局,价格走势一枝独秀;而同样是蛋白原料的鱼粉,却因为今年南方接连发生台风和暴雨,需求表现疲软,而近期在外盘松动的影响下加速回落;玉米走势则更为尴尬,随着新玉米临近上市愈发的不托底,从目前港口以及贸易商的存货看,市场商业库存水平明显高于预期,新玉米上市前将会有一轮价格回归。
As autumn approaches, the output of agricultural products in the northern hemisphere has entered a late stage of growth, and the weather has become crucial. The output figures have also gradually become more stereotyped. The supply and demand in the second half of the year are also gradually clear. Due to the temporary stabilization of domestic and international macroeconomic conditions, the peak season of the domestic autumn season is gradually becoming prominent. The rebound in hog prices has caused a steady rise in domestic pig population. However, feed ingredients have been mixed with mixed performance. Due to the reduced supply of miscellaneous meal, the consumption of soybean meal increased significantly this year, the spot price remained high, and the supply also showed a tight pattern. The price trend was notable. The same is the fish meal of protein raw materials, but because of the successive typhoons in southern China this year And heavy rain, weak demand, and recently under the influence of the loose disk accelerated down; corn trend is more embarrassing, with the new maize near the market is growing, from the current port and traders inventory, the market business Inventory levels were significantly higher than expected, there will be a round of price return of new corn before listing.