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松花江区是中国粮食增产计划的重点地区,这势必对该区的水资源开发利用提出挑战。建立研究区水资源承载力的综合评价模型,选取社会经济指标、用水指标、水土资源对人口的承载指标、水资源供需指标和水环境等5类共10项指标组成评价指标体系,采用聚类分析、层次分析和模糊矩阵的方法进行计算。以2007年作为现状年,1999年为参照年份,得到各年份水资源承载力整体均处于安全状态的结论;结合研究区具体情况对水资源承载力的影响因素进行分析,预测粮食增产条件下研究区水资源承载力的变化趋势。
The Songhuajiang District is a key area for China’s grain production plan, which is bound to challenge the development and utilization of water resources in the area. A comprehensive evaluation model of water resources carrying capacity in the study area was established. Ten indices including socio-economic indicators, water indicators, land-bearing indicators of water and land resources, water supply and demand indicators and water environment were selected to form an evaluation index system. Clusters Analysis, level analysis and fuzzy matrix method to calculate. Taking 2007 as the status quo year and 1999 as the reference year, it is concluded that the water resources carrying capacity in all years are in a safe state as a whole. According to the specific conditions in the study area, the influencing factors of water resources carrying capacity are analyzed, Regional water resources carrying capacity of the changing trend.