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德尔菲技术预测法就是利用专家的主观判断,通过信息沟通与循环反馈,使预测意见趋于一致,逼近实际值。学习型历史文献是一套记录企业重要事件的文本,包括了企业的变革过程,该文献分为两栏,左栏是企业各种事项的当事人或受影响者及观察过该事项的人对事项的描述,右栏是企业聘请的专家针对各种事件进行归纳提出的相关建议和对文献的完善。本文初步探析了将学习型历史文献应用到德尔菲预测法中,这样,既提高德尔菲预测法的准确性和实用性,也拓展了学习型历史文献的用途。
Delphi technology forecasting method is the use of expert subjective judgments, through information communication and circular feedback, so that the forecasting opinions tend to be consistent, approaching the actual value. The learning history document is a set of texts that record the important events of the enterprise and includes the process of the enterprise transformation. The document is divided into two columns. The left column is the party or affected person of the enterprise and the person who has observed the matter. The right column is the expert advice hired by enterprises to summarize the various suggestions and improve the literature. This paper initially explores the application of learning historical documents to the Delphi forecasting method, which not only improves the accuracy and practicability of the Delphi forecasting method, but also expands the use of the learning historical documents.