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以系统动力学为框架研究短信的引导与管理,通过系统分析短信产业链结构,建立描述各要素相互作用的短信产业链系统动力学仿真模型,并用VENSIM PLE 5.4C对建立的模型进行运行和控制,得出短信产业链上运营商应为监管重点的结论.之后,利用模型对手机实名制和SP号码统一等短信相关的政策进行仿真模拟,得出两者都能达到减少不良短信的结论.本文的贡献在于,采用系统动力学建模分析短信产业链,并通过模拟仿真来试验性地论证短信监管的政策.
Systematic dynamics framework is used to study the guidance and management of SMS. By systematically analyzing the structure of SMS industry chain, a system simulation model of SMS industry chain describing the interaction of various factors is established. The model is run and controlled by VENSIM PLE 5.4C And draws the conclusion that the operators in SMS industry chain should be the key point of supervision.After that, the model is used to simulate the SMS-related policies such as the real name system of mobile phone and the unification of SP numbers, and the conclusion is reached that both of them can reduce the bad SMS. The contribution lies in the use of system dynamics modeling analysis of the SMS industry chain, and through simulation to tentatively demonstrate the SMS supervision policy.