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汶川地震后,地震灾区次生地质灾害十分活跃,尤其是泥石流灾害,呈现出爆发频繁、规模巨大、影响周期长等特点,究其缘由,主要与地震产生的大量物源有关。以绵阳市安县高川河流域8条主要泥石流沟为例,通过现场实际调查,结合遥感影像,统计了研究区内泥石流物源情况,得到了各泥石流沟的物源总量及动储量。从统计结果看,研究区内各泥石流沟物源均较为丰富,具备再次发生大规模泥石流的条件;研究区泥石流物源主要来自于地震崩滑体,通过对崩滑物源的统计分析,发现其分布表现出明显的高程效应、坡度效应、坡体结构效应以及上下盘效应。并在此基础上,基于灰色理论,建立了研究区泥石流活动物源量的GM(1,5)预测模型,通过残差验证,证明了该模型具有较高可信度。
After the Wenchuan earthquake, the secondary geological disasters in the earthquake-stricken area are very active, especially the debris flow disaster. The occurrence of frequent earthquakes is huge, and the period of influence is long. The reason is mainly related to a large number of sources of earthquakes. Taking 8 major debris flow valleys in the Gaochuanhe basin of An County, Mianyang City as an example, the source of debris flow in the study area was calculated through field survey and remote sensing images. From the statistical results, the sources of debris flow ditches in the study area are rich, with the condition of large-scale debris flow recurring again. The source of debris flow in the study area is mainly from the landslide-bearing body. By statistical analysis of the landslide source, The distribution showed obvious elevation effect, slope effect, slope structure and the effect of the plate up and down. Based on this, a GM (1,5) prediction model of debris flow activity in the study area was established based on the gray theory. The residual verification proved that the model has high credibility.