论文部分内容阅读
基于简单的分布式水文模型CREST和多种卫星遥感资料及站点观测资料等,建立了一个高分辨率的动力数值洪涝灾害预报系统.该系统包含数据输入、水文模型、模式输出以及结果验证4部分.数据输入使用了高分辨率卫星遥感DEM等地表下垫面数据作为边界条件,使用时空分辨率和精度都较好的CMORPH卫星遥感降水资料作为驱动数据,驱动分布式水文模型CREST实时运行,以监测和预报中国地区尤其是无站点观测或者站点较少地区的洪涝灾害.对2008~2011年的水文基本变量后报结果结合不同流域水文站点的水文过程线分析验证表明,水平空间分辨率1 km的系统能够较好地后报中国地区的基本水文过程,能够较好地后报如实际蒸散发、土壤湿度、地表径流等基本水文变量;系统能够较好地模拟和后报河道径流量涨落过程;能够较好地后报洪峰及其对应的流量.同时,经过几次洪涝灾害事件的分析验证,表明系统能较好地监测、预报洪涝发生的时间及其影响的范围,从而可以为防灾减灾提供参考依据.
Based on the simple distributed hydrological model CREST and many kinds of satellite remote sensing data and site observation data, a high-resolution dynamic numerical flood disaster forecasting system is established. The system includes data input, hydrological model, model output and result verification Data input uses the ground surface data of high resolution satellite remote sensing DEM as the boundary conditions and uses the remote sensing precipitation data of CMORPH satellite with good temporal and spatial resolution and precision as the driving data to drive the distributed hydrological model CREST to run in real time Monitoring and forecasting of floods and disasters in China, especially in the absence of stations or in areas with less stations.The analysis of the hydrological base variables after 2008-2011 combined with the hydrological process of different hydrological stations shows that the horizontal spatial resolution of 1 km Of the system can report the basic hydrological processes well in China afterwards and report the basic hydrological variables such as actual evapotranspiration, soil moisture and surface runoff well afterwards. The system can better simulate and report the fluctuation of runoff in the river Process; be able to better reported flood peak and its corresponding traffic at the same time, after several floods Analysis and verification of harmful events show that the system can better monitor and predict the occurrence time of flood and the range of its impact, which can provide a reference for disaster prevention and mitigation.