论文部分内容阅读
本文使用1999-2009年的月度数据,运用SVAR方法对货币政策、房地产市场与宏观经济波动之间的动态关系进行了经验研究。研究发现:存在通过房地产市场影响宏观经济的货币政策传导渠道,在货币政策调控房价方面,选择金融机构信贷规模作为中介目标较为有效;房地产市场的波动在短期将引起宏观经济大幅波动,在新一轮房地产调控过程中政府要密切关注房市走向。
This paper uses the monthly data from 1999 to 2009 and uses SVAR method to study the dynamic relationship between monetary policy, real estate market and macroeconomic fluctuations. The research finds that there exists a channel for monetary policy that affects the macroeconomy through the real estate market. It is more effective to select the credit scale of financial institutions as an intermediary target in the regulation of housing prices by monetary policy. In the short run, the volatility of real estate market will cause macroeconomic volatility. In the real estate regulation and control process, the government should pay close attention to the direction of the housing market.