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采用层次分析法(AHP)和案例分析相结合的方法,建立了基于事故后果评价的危验化学品风险评估模型。模型综合考虑了事故直接后果、次生衍生事故、以及应急救援等因素,并提出了应急救援的风险抵消作用的建模方法。利用该模型对危验化学品泄漏事故进行了风险评估,采用实际案例对评估结果进行了验证。基于该模型分析了应急救援对事故后果风险的抵消作用。研究表明:所建立的风险评估模型能较好地反映实际事故后果情况,应急救援力量对减低事故后果风险具有重要作用,在风险评估中应予充分考虑。
By using the method of AHP and case analysis, risk assessment model of hazardous chemicals based on accident consequence evaluation was established. The model synthetically considers the direct consequence of the accident, secondary derivative accident and emergency rescue and other factors, and puts forward the modeling method of the risk relief of emergency rescue. The model is used to evaluate the risk of chemical leakage and the actual case is used to verify the assessment results. Based on this model, the effect of emergency rescue on the risk of accident consequence is analyzed. The research shows that the established risk assessment model can well reflect the actual accident consequences. The emergency rescue force plays an important role in reducing the risk of accident consequences and should be fully considered in the risk assessment.