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2012年7月下旬,市场充满了悲观情绪,在全球经济不景气的影响下,有不少非常负面的评论充斥在媒体中。记得一两年前,当市场相对乐观的时候,在一些投资论坛中,笔者就和其它专家及基金经理不同,有不同的见解;当时笔者已经警告,欧洲的问题比他们想象中严重。不过,市场的情绪变化幅度很大,有时很乐观,有时又变得过分悲观,而投资机会就往往出现在市场过分悲观之际。现在,悲观情绪的一个体现,就是对一些专家言论反应过敏,甚至产生曲解。举个例子,有评论引述著名对冲基金经理雷·戴利奥
In late July 2012, the market was full of pessimism. Under the influence of the global economic downturn, many negative comments were filled in the media. I remember a year or two ago, when the market was relatively optimistic, in some investment forums, I differed from other experts and fund managers in that they had different opinions. At that time, the author had warned that the problems in Europe were more serious than they imagined. However, market sentiment varies widely, is sometimes optimistic and sometimes overly pessimistic, and investment opportunities often appear when markets are overly pessimistic. Now, one embodiment of pessimism is that it is allergic to some experts’ remarks and even misinterpreted it. For example, a comment quoted Ray O’Donogh, a famous hedge fund manager