用综合系数法作超长期洪涝灾害预测的研究

• 机 构: 吉林省水文水资源局;东北师范大学
• 出 处: 大自然探索
• 发表日期: 1998年4期
• 关键词: composite index disaster flood danger index

运用天文学、地学、水文学、灾害学和易学的基本原理,选用公元前230年至1994年有关突发性暴雨、短历时大暴雨、飓风、气旋、特大洪水等所造成的446场各种严重灾害,并通过对15万组数据及描述其各组特征的文字资料进行分析、统计、计算列表、绘图等方式设计出一套综合系数,求取了形成我国洪涝灾害的危险指数:谷值是7,9,11;峰值是18,24;上升段是14;下降段是18,校核历史上洪涝灾害,拟合率为70%左右.最后对这种方法进行了讨论,指出了综合系数法不仅能有效地利用有文字记载的各种灾害资料,还能根据危险指数的大小及其特性预测出超长期洪涝灾害程度及其洪灾发生地点、时间等6大优点,又以近两年作业预报为实例作了验证.“,”This paper were used the fundamental principle of The Book of Charge,catastrophism,hydrology,hydrography and astronomy.A set of composite index was disigned according to analyse,statistics,calculate,tabulate,chart through to choose date of the number 446 of rainstorm suddenly happen,shorttime heavy storm,hurricane,cyclone and heavist flood from B.C 230 to A.D 1994 total fifteen thousands set number,and get the flood index in our country,The low value is number 7,9,111 and the high value is number 18,24.The fall segment is 18 and the rise segment is 14.This method can be check the damage of heavy flood.The qualification rate is about 70 percent.It is discuss to the method in the last,the method not only can effectively utilize every kind droughts date of recorded history but also forcasted the flood damagers time,place,according to danger index,the method was verify through forecast example recently.