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利用土壤表层温度计算Stefan公式中融化指数,并结合铁路沿线地下冰和土体干密度分布特征,由Stefan公式集合预报未来100a逐年最大季节融化深度;利用铁路沿线地下冰和干密度分布特征计算冻土融化时最大沉降量空间分布,与Stefan公式计算得到的活动层厚度变化数据叠加分析,得到未来100a逐年的沉降量空间分布及其置信区间.根据沉降量大小对青藏铁路沿线多年冻土区进行稳定性分类,用铁路沿线地质勘察结果对预测结果验证,表明模拟结果和目前冻土稳定性有很大的相关性.活动层厚度未来变化总体呈增加趋势,活动层厚度变化和地下冰分布(尤其是上限附近的高含冰量冻土)是决定沉降量变化的两大主要因素.
The melting index of Stefan formula was calculated by using soil surface temperature. According to the distribution characteristics of underground ice and soil dry density along the railway, the Stefan formula set was used to predict the maximum annual thawing depth in the future 100 years. Calculated using the distribution characteristics of underground ice and dry density along the railway line The spatial distribution of the maximum settlement when the soil melts and the data of the thickness of the active layer calculated by the Stefan formula are superimposed and analyzed to obtain the spatial distribution of the settlement and its confidence intervals over the next 100 years.According to the settlement size of the permafrost along the Qinghai- The stability classification and the results of geological survey along the railway are used to verify the prediction results, which shows that the simulation results have great correlation with the current stability of the frozen soil. The future changes of the active layer thickness are generally increasing, the thickness of the active layer and the distribution of the underground ice Especially the frozen ice with high ice content near the upper limit) are two major factors that determine the change of settlement.