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地震剪切波分裂(SWS)可用来监测饱和流体微裂纹岩石的细微形变。本文报告了由小地震记录到的剪切波分裂系统性变化的证据,通过监测震前的应力积累可预测即将发生的大震的时间和震级。通过对冰岛西南部的M1.7级震群事件到台湾MS7.7级集集地震等15个震例(其中包括成功预测的冰岛西南部的M5.0地震)的剪切波分裂研究,可以看到预测效果。大地震发生前观测到剪切波分裂时间延迟会明显增加,而临震前短时间内时间延迟会突然下降。研究表明,震级与临震前这种时间延迟增加的持续时间和减小的持续时间的对数都具有线性相关。然而,作为日常应力预测常缺乏适当的持续小震群。可靠的地震预测需要应力监测站(简称SMS)中采用毗邻钻孔中的可控源井间地震技术。利用应力监测站的全球网络实时应力预测世界范围破坏性地震是非常可能的。
Seismic shear-wave splitting (SWS) can be used to monitor the fine deformation of saturated-fluid microcracked rocks. This paper reports evidence of systematic changes in shear-wave splitting recorded by small earthquakes and predicts the timing and magnitudes of upcoming earthquakes by monitoring the pre-earthquake stress accumulation. Through the study of shear wave splitting of 15 earthquakes in the southwestern part of Iceland to the M7.0 earthquake episode in Taiwan (including the M5.0 earthquake in southwestern Iceland which was successfully predicted), it is possible to See the forecast effect. It is observed that the time delay of shear-wave splitting increases obviously before the earthquake and the time delay will suddenly drop shortly before the earthquake. Studies have shown that both the magnitude and the logarithm of the duration of the increase in delay before the onset of the earthquake have a linear correlation with the logarithm of the duration of the decrease. However, as a daily stress forecast, there is often a lack of an appropriate sustained small swarm of swarms. Reliable earthquake prediction requires the use of controlled source crosswell seismic techniques in adjacent boreholes in stress monitoring stations (SMS). It is very possible to predict the worldwide destructive earthquakes using the real-time stress of the global network of stress monitoring stations.