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目前有许多人把此次日本灾后经济前景与第二次世界大战后和阪神大地震后的情形相比,认为日本第二次世界大战后和阪神大地震后经济的快速增长很大程度上要归功于灾后重建的需求拉动,并由此推断这次灾后大规模重建有可能使日本经济出现“V型”复苏。然而情形是不是如此,我们还需要分析其大背景,全球经济产业格局的迥异很可能让这次的情况有很大的不同。
At present, many people compared the post-disaster economic prospects of Japan to those after the Second World War and the Great Hanshin Earthquake and considered that the rapid economic growth after World War II and the Great Hanshin Earthquake in Japan was to a large extent Thanks to the demand for post-disaster reconstruction, it is possible to conclude that the massive reconstruction after the disaster is likely to bring about a “V-shaped” recovery in the Japanese economy. However, this is not the case. We also need to analyze its background. The very different situations of the global economic and industrial structure are likely to make this situation very different.