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系统总结了地震造成的人员伤亡的估算方法,以我国1990-2006年间造成人员伤亡的破坏性地震为数据样本,结合国内几次大地震的震害资料,找出了影响人员伤亡的主要因素,经过函数拟合与回归分析,提出了一个以震中烈度为主要参数,以震级和人口密度作为辅助参数进行修正的人员伤亡预测模型,并利用已有的地震实例进行了模型检验,证明其具有较好的精确性和可靠性。
Summarized the method of estimating the casualties caused by the earthquake, taking the destructive earthquake causing casualties in China from 1990 to 2006 as the data sample, combined with the earthquake damage data of several major earthquakes in our country, we found out the main factors affecting the casualties, After function fitting and regression analysis, a prediction model of casualties based on the intensity of the epicenter as the main parameter and using the magnitude and population density as the auxiliary parameters is proposed. The model test is conducted by using the existing earthquake examples, Good accuracy and reliability.