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从2012年8月份开始,我国工业一致合成指数结束持续长达31个月的下滑态势,呈现逐月回升局面,回升态势一直持续至2013年8月,并且根据先行合成指数的走势和平均超前期计算,直至2013年12月我国工业经济的景气上升态势都不会改变。进一步观察我国工业及相关领域主要经济指标可以发现我国工业经济本轮的景气波动具有如下特点:(1)工业生产增速总体平稳,产业结构调整积极推进;(2)企业效益呈恢复性回升态势,但企业特别是小、微企业的生产经营困难依然较大(;3)内需拉动作用增强,外需不振影响程度加深。
Starting from August 2012, China’s industrial consensus composite index ended a downward trend lasting 31 months, showing a monthly rise. The upward trend continued until August 2013, and according to the trend of the leading composite index and the average lead time Calculated that until December 2013 the upward trend of China’s industrial economy will not change. To further observe the major economic indicators of China’s industry and related fields, it can be found that the current economic fluctuations in China’s industrial economy have the following characteristics: (1) The overall growth rate of industrial production is stable and the industrial structure adjustment is actively promoted; (2) However, the production and operation difficulties of enterprises, especially those of small and micro enterprises, are still relatively large (3) The stimulating effect of domestic demand has been strengthened and the extent of external demand deterioration has deepened.