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去年下半年以来的一系列宏观经济指标显示,我国的经济经过治理整顿已开始回升。在这一基本背景下,如何估价未来经济的走势,以作出正确的决策,这是政府决策者和理论界学者都极为重视的问题。事实上,在对我国未来经济形势的不同判断中,已隐含着对我国经济体制改革进程、经济发展格局演变的不同认识。这无疑事关重大。英国伦敦经济学院访问学者、国家信息中心预测处处长廖群与江西大学经济系副主任陈宪同志就以上问题作了探讨,本刊特发此稿以期引起讨论。
A series of macroeconomic indicators since the second half of last year show that our economy has started to recover after remediation. Under this basic background, how to evaluate the trend of the future economy and make the correct decision-making is an issue which both government policy makers and theorists pay great attention to. In fact, different judgments on China’s future economic situation have implicated different understandings on the process of China’s economic reform and the evolution of its economic development pattern. This is undoubtedly important. Liao Qun, chief scholar of forecast of National Information Center, and visiting scholar of London School of Economics, UK, discussed with Professor Chen Xian, deputy director of the Department of Economics of Jiangxi University. The issue of this manuscript was issued in the hope of arousing discussion.