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关于“未来潜在增长点将是什么”这个问题的答案与其不可预知性同样重要。本文试图通过结合未知因素(未来生产率增长、劳动力市场表现)与已知因素(人口结构的演变)来回答增长前景的问题。与发达经济体及中国这样的经济体在内的世界其他经济体一样,美国经济面临的主要挑战也是人口问题。这个挑战来自几十年前的生育决策,在短时间内无法改变。因此,美国在未来十年中的增长率将维持在2%左右,比较可能处在0.9%~2.7%之间,而高于3.0%则比较不可能。健全的政策可以提高这一潜在增长率,例如税收改革、监管改革和基础设施投资的结合预计可以提升增长率0.5个百分点。但有问题的经济政策,包括限制贸易、移民或大幅增加赤字也可能降低增长速度。值得注意的是,本文并没有尝试对特朗普总统经济政策本身的可取性做任何评估。除了上文所述的增长效应之外,可取性的评估还需要考虑一系列其他因素,比如对收入分配的影响、移民的社会经济影响或贸易政策对外交政策的影响等。
The answer to the question “What is the potential for future growth” is just as important as its unpredictability. This paper attempts to answer the question of growth prospects by combining the unknown factors (future productivity growth, labor market performance) with known factors (demographic evolution). Like other economies in the world, such as developed economies and China, the major challenge to the U.S. economy is population. This challenge comes from the birth decision made decades ago and can not be changed in a short time. Therefore, the U.S. growth rate in the next ten years will be maintained at around 2%, more likely to be between 0.9% and 2.7%, while above 3.0% is less likely. Sound policies can increase this potential growth rate. For example, a combination of tax reform, regulatory reform and infrastructure investment is expected to boost the growth rate by 0.5 percentage point. However, problematic economic policies, including restrictions on trade, immigration or drastic increases in deficits, may also reduce the rate of growth. It is noteworthy that this article does not attempt to make any assessment of the desirability of President Trump’s economic policy itself. In addition to the growth effects described above, the assessment of the merits needs to consider a number of other factors, such as the impact on income distribution, the socio-economic impact of immigrants or the impact of trade policies on foreign policies.