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如何合理评估货币政策对企业R&D项目投资决策的影响已成为企业决策者面临的重要问题。本研究根据决策者认知偏差和分子动力学理论,在分析R&D项目中的实物期权特征和价值相互作用的基础上,研究了货币政策对不同股权性质企业的R&D项目投资决策的影响,研究表明:不同企业对货币政策的敏感程度不同;随着货币扩张强度的增加,不同企业对项目期权价值的预期和可获得的最大价值表现出差异性;在同一货币扩张强度下,随着投资额的增加,期权价值的上下限、预期值和可获得的最大价值不断增大;当货币扩张程度增大时,货币政策对预期值的解释力变强。最后,站在政府和企业的角度,给出了提高货币政策实施效果和企业创新能力的相关建议。
How to reasonably assess the impact of monetary policy on the investment decision-making of R & D projects in enterprises has become an important issue for business decision-makers. Based on the decision makers’ cognitive bias and molecular dynamics theory, this study analyzes the impact of monetary policy on the R & D investment decisions of R & D projects based on the analysis of the real option characteristics and the value interactions in R & D projects. : Different enterprises have different sensitivity to monetary policy. As the strength of monetary expansion increases, different enterprises show discrepancy between expected value of project options and maximum value available. Under the same monetary expansion intensity, with the increase of investment The upper and lower limits of the option value, the expected value and the maximum value that can be obtained continuously increase. When the degree of monetary expansion increases, the explanatory power of the monetary policy to the expected value becomes stronger. Finally, from the perspectives of the government and enterprises, some suggestions are put forward to improve the implementation effect of monetary policy and the innovation ability of enterprises.