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利用我国现有尾矿库溃坝事故统计资料,对事故发生趋势进行了分析,并从概率分析角度出发,基于贝叶斯估计方法对我国尾矿库溃坝事故风险进行定量分析,建立了尾矿库溃坝事故发生概率模型,对未来49a内的可能的溃坝事故发生年数进行了预测。分析认为,我国尾矿库溃坝事故多年发生概率比较低,但年内发生次数却呈现上升趋势。因此,需加大矿山安全管理力度,对中小型和废弃尾矿库加强监管,以减小未来发生尾矿库溃坝事故的概率。
Based on the statistical data of the dam-break accidents of the existing tailings dam in our country, the trend of the accident is analyzed, and from the perspective of probability analysis, the risk of dam-break accidents of tailings dam in our country is quantitatively analyzed based on the Bayesian estimation method, Probability model of mine dam failure occurred in dam and predicted the number of possible dam failure accidents in 49 years. According to the analysis, the probability of mine tailings dam breaching dam has a relatively low probability of occurrence for many years, but the number of occurrences during the year showed an upward trend. Therefore, it is necessary to intensify mine safety management and strengthen supervision on small and medium-sized and abandoned tailings ponds in order to reduce the probability of future occurrence of tailings dam dumping.